United Breweries Ltd. (UBL)
Date Range: 2026-03-22 to 2026-06-22 | Starting Capital: ₹100,000
Symbol-Specific Risk & Execution Parameters
These execution parameters have been optimized specifically for UBL based on historical volatility, structural character, and friction constraints:
- ATR Stop Distance (
max_stop_atr):1.50x ATR - Minimum Reward-to-Risk Ratio (
min_reward_risk):1.20R - Friction Buffer Target (
friction_min_target_pct):0.03% - Positional Holds Allowed (
allow_positional_hold):True
Executive Summary
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Rating | AVOID |
| Conviction Score | 32/100 |
| Trend | Neutral / Bullish |
| Sector Rank | 13/19 |
| Suitable Horizon | Not recommended |
| Action | Wait for a higher-quality setup. Avoid fresh capital allocation. |
Model Backtest & Validation Summary
To validate the conviction score recommendations, the system ran historical simulation backtests for UBL under institutional execution assumptions:
| Metric | Out-of-Sample (OOS) Backtest Performance |
|---|---|
| Validation Date Range | 2026-03-22 to 2026-06-22 |
| Total Signals Executed | 0 trades |
| Historical Win Rate | 0.0% (0W / 0L) <span style="font-size: 0.8rem; padding: 2px 6px; border-radius: 4px; background-color: #ef444420; color: #ef4444; font-weight: bold; margin-left: 6px;" aria-label="Low reliability: fewer than 10 trades">Exploratory</span> |
| Average Trade Expectancy | ₹0.00/trade |
| Profit Factor / Sortino Ratio | 0.00 / 0.00 |
| Maximum Backtest Drawdown | 0.0% |
| Net Strategy Return | +0.00% |
| Cost & Slippage Assumptions | 0.16% round-trip trading friction (0.05% slippage, 0.03% commission, taxes) |
| Execution Sizing Rules | ₹1,000 risk target per trade, ATR-based stop sizing (max 1.5% cap) |
| Validation Methodology | Out-of-Sample (OOS) Walk-Forward Validated Parameters |
What Changed Since Previous Report?
- Initial Run / Baseline: No previous report was found for this symbol to perform comparative validation. This report establishes the baseline parameters.
Actionable Trading Guidance
Direct Stock Setup Outlook
No active intraday setup detected for the next session.
⌥ Options Strategy Recommendation
Recommended Vehicle: Cash Equity
Reason: Highest risk-adjusted return (EV/Risk Ratio of -0.034) with consistent historical expectancy and zero options friction.
- Volatility Dashboard: Realized Vol (RV): 24.2% | Implied Vol (IV): 27.6% | IV Rank: 37.2% | IV Percentile: 76.3%
- Directional Probabilities: P(up): 10% | P(down): 10% | P(flat): 80%
- Expected Return Distribution: Median: -4.58% (10th: -9.61%, 90th: +3.79%) | Expected Move: -0.00 ATR
Expected Value (EV) Payoff Matrix:
| Strategy | Expected Value (EV) | Capital (Margin) | Expected Return on Margin | Risk | EV / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Condor | ₹629.08 | ₹11,363.65 | 5.5% | ₹289.24 | 2.175 |
| Bear Call Spread | ₹1864.86 | ₹17,045.48 | 10.9% | ₹2378.21 | 0.784 |
| Futures | ₹-338.30 | ₹85,227.38 | -0.4% | ₹42576.37 | -0.008 |
| Cash Equity | ₹-1403.64 | ₹568,182.51 | -0.2% | ₹41548.57 | -0.034 |
| Long OTM Put | ₹-8089.63 | ₹11,855.20 | -68.2% | ₹25914.42 | -0.312 |
| Long ATM Put | ₹-9893.41 | ₹14,205.60 | -69.6% | ₹28659.35 | -0.345 |
| Synthetic Future | ₹-10261.75 | ₹85,227.38 | -12.0% | ₹22767.30 | -0.451 |
| Protective Put | ₹-10265.66 | ₹579,546.16 | -1.8% | ₹22767.30 | -0.451 |
Systematic Execution Plan (Generic Framework)
- Stop Loss: 1.5 × ATR from entry
- Profit Targets: Target 1 (1R) for 50% scale-out, trail remainder.
Expected Outcomes & Suitability
Expected 1 Month Outcome
- Bullish: 10.1%
- Neutral: 79.9%
- Bearish: 10.1%
Expected Return Range
- Median: -4.58%
- 25th percentile: -7.13%
- 75th percentile: -1.12%
Portfolio Suitability
Suitable For:
- None
Not Suitable For:
- ✗ Swing Traders
- ✗ Positional Traders
- ✗ Long-Term Growth Investors
- ✗ Income Investors
- ✗ Low Volatility Portfolios
- ✗ Growth Investors
Sector & Regime Context
- Sector: Fast Moving Consumer Goods
- Sector Strength: 1.3/10
- Relative Strength: -5.74% vs NIFTY
- Sector Rank: 13 of 19 sectors
- Structural Regime: COMPRESSION
- Tactical Setup Focus:
Compression Breakout,Inside Bar Breakout,Volatility Expansion,Extended Base Breakout,Theta-Decay Trap
Conviction Score Breakdown:
- 1. Technical Setups: +10.0 / 35 (No active setup, but daily price is in a strong uptrend (Close > 20 EMA > 50 SMA > 200 SMA))
- 2. Fundamentals: +5.0 / 25 (Deteriorating business growth structure (Grade D))
- 3. Sector Context: +2.7 / 20 (Sector Strength: 1.3/10 (Fast Moving Consumer Goods))
- 4. Regime & Momentum: +14.3 / 20 (Daily candle close location: +4.3 pts (86% of range), Market in low-volatility/range regime
COMPRESSION: +5.0 pts, VIX is 13.5 (Low volatility/risk): +5.0 pts)
Conviction Rating System Matrix:
| Score Range | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 90 - 100 | Strong Buy |
| 75 - 89 | Buy |
| 60 - 74 | Watchlist |
| 40 - 59 | Neutral |
| Below 40 | Avoid |
Fundamental Analysis & Annual Guidance
- Valuation: Trailing P/E: 86.2 | Forward P/E: 61.7 | PEG Ratio: N/A | Price/Book: 7.85
- Business Growth: Revenue YoY: -0.03% | Quarterly EPS: 0.04% | ROE: N/A
- Risk & Dividend: Beta: -0.01 | Dividend Yield: 0.75% | Book Value: 164.32
- Investment Grade: Grade D (Avoid)
- Recommendation: Revenue contraction signals structural business issues. High-stability defensive profile (Beta: -0.01).
- Annual Entry Guidance: No fresh capital allocation recommended.
- Annual Exit Guidance: Liquidate any existing holdings. A business with contracting revenue is mathematically a deteriorating asset.
Historical & Simulation Evidence
Model Validation: Capital Preservation (No Trades)
The system did not execute any trades during this backtest period. This is a valid risk-mitigation outcome: potential setups were systematically filtered out because they did not meet our strict expectation-to-risk constraints.
Data Status: Successfully analyzed 918073 minutes of price action.
Filtering Status: 1 potential setups detected but rejected by execution filters:
- 1 rejected by Intraday Liquidity Filter (vol < threshold).