Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. (MRPL)

Date Range: 2026-03-22 to 2026-06-22 | Starting Capital: ₹100,000

Symbol-Specific Risk & Execution Parameters

These execution parameters have been optimized specifically for MRPL based on historical volatility, structural character, and friction constraints:

ATR Stop Distance (max_stop_atr): 1.50x ATR
Minimum Reward-to-Risk Ratio (min_reward_risk): 1.20R
Friction Buffer Target (friction_min_target_pct): 0.03%
Positional Holds Allowed (allow_positional_hold): True

[!WARNING]

Offline Daily Macro Data Missing: The macro and multi-horizon outlook sections were omitted because local daily price data was not found.

Executive Summary

Summary table for MRPL Report
Attribute	Value
Rating	AVOID
Conviction Score	31/100
Trend	Neutral
Sector Rank	12/19
Suitable Horizon	Not recommended
Action	Wait for a higher-quality setup. Avoid fresh capital allocation.

Model Backtest & Validation Summary

To validate the conviction score recommendations, the system ran historical simulation backtests for MRPL under institutional execution assumptions:

Summary table for MRPL Report
Metric	Out-of-Sample (OOS) Backtest Performance
Validation Date Range	`2026-03-22 to 2026-06-22`
Total Signals Executed	`0` trades
Historical Win Rate	`0.0%` (0W / 0L) <span style="font-size: 0.8rem; padding: 2px 6px; border-radius: 4px; background-color: #ef444420; color: #ef4444; font-weight: bold; margin-left: 6px;" aria-label="Low reliability: fewer than 10 trades">Exploratory</span>
Average Trade Expectancy	`₹0.00/trade`
Profit Factor / Sortino Ratio	`0.00 / 0.00`
Maximum Backtest Drawdown	`0.0%`
Net Strategy Return	`+0.00%`
Cost & Slippage Assumptions	`0.16% round-trip trading friction (0.05% slippage, 0.03% commission, taxes)`
Execution Sizing Rules	`₹1,000 risk target per trade, ATR-based stop sizing (max 1.5% cap)`
Validation Methodology	`Out-of-Sample (OOS) Walk-Forward Validated Parameters`

What Changed Since Previous Report?

Initial Run / Baseline: No previous report was found for this symbol to perform comparative validation. This report establishes the baseline parameters.

Actionable Trading Guidance

Direct Stock Setup Outlook

No active intraday setup detected for the next session.

⌥ Options Strategy Recommendation

Recommended Vehicle: Cash Equity

Reason: Highest risk-adjusted return (EV/Risk Ratio of -0.049) with consistent historical expectancy and zero options friction.

Volatility Dashboard: Realized Vol (RV): 47.9% | Implied Vol (IV): 51.3% | IV Rank: 45.8% | IV Percentile: 66.8%
Directional Probabilities: P(up): 10% | P(down): 10% | P(flat): 80%
Expected Return Distribution: Median: +0.64% (10th: -14.61%, 90th: +22.43%) | Expected Move: -0.02 ATR

Expected Value (EV) Payoff Matrix:

Summary table for MRPL Report
Strategy	Expected Value (EV)	Capital (Margin)	Expected Return on Margin	Risk	EV / Risk
Iron Condor	₹869.51	₹11,884.95	7.3%	₹255.98	3.397
Bear Call Spread	₹1709.15	₹17,827.43	9.6%	₹3558.06	0.480
Futures	₹-351.98	₹89,137.13	-0.4%	₹30828.91	-0.011
Cash Equity	₹-1466.19	₹594,247.54	-0.2%	₹29741.97	-0.049
Synthetic Future	₹-10734.72	₹89,137.13	-12.0%	₹23809.90	-0.451
Protective Put	₹-10738.80	₹606,132.49	-1.8%	₹23809.90	-0.451
Calendar Spread	₹-10778.80	₹17,827.43	-60.5%	₹23849.90	-0.452
Ratio Spread	₹-10778.80	₹59,424.75	-18.1%	₹23849.90	-0.452

Systematic Execution Plan (Generic Framework)

Stop Loss: 1.5 × ATR from entry
Profit Targets: Target 1 (1R) for 50% scale-out, trail remainder.

Expected Outcomes & Suitability

Expected 1 Month Outcome

Bullish: 10.0%
Neutral: 79.9%
Bearish: 10.0%

Expected Return Range

Median: +0.64%
25th percentile: -9.54%
75th percentile: +10.27%

Portfolio Suitability

Suitable For:

None

Not Suitable For:

✗ Swing Traders
✗ Positional Traders
✗ Long-Term Growth Investors
✗ Income Investors
✗ Low Volatility Portfolios
✗ Growth Investors

Sector & Regime Context

Sector: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Sector Strength: 6.7/10
Relative Strength: -4.76% vs NIFTY
Sector Rank: 12 of 19 sectors
Structural Regime: COMPRESSION
Tactical Setup Focus: Compression Breakout, Inside Bar Breakout, Volatility Expansion, Extended Base Breakout, Theta-Decay Trap

Conviction Score Breakdown:

1. Technical Setups: +0.0 / 35 (No active technical setup and no strong daily momentum structure)
2. Fundamentals: +5.0 / 25 (Deteriorating business growth structure (Grade D))
3. Sector Context: +13.4 / 20 (Sector Strength: 6.7/10 (Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels))
4. Regime & Momentum: +12.5 / 20 (Daily candle close location: +2.5 pts (50% of range), Market in low-volatility/range regime COMPRESSION: +5.0 pts, VIX is 13.5 (Low volatility/risk): +5.0 pts)

Conviction Rating System Matrix:

Summary table for MRPL Report
Score Range	Meaning
90 - 100	Strong Buy
75 - 89	Buy
60 - 74	Watchlist
40 - 59	Neutral
Below 40	Avoid

Fundamental Analysis & Annual Guidance

Valuation: Trailing P/E: 14.1 | Forward P/E: 15.9 | PEG Ratio: N/A | Price/Book: 1.90
Business Growth: Revenue YoY: -0.03% | Quarterly EPS: -0.68% | ROE: N/A
Risk & Dividend: Beta: 0.18 | Dividend Yield: 2.59% | Book Value: 81.31
Investment Grade: Grade D (Avoid)
Recommendation: Revenue contraction signals structural business issues. High-stability defensive profile (Beta: 0.18).
Annual Entry Guidance: No fresh capital allocation recommended.
Annual Exit Guidance: Liquidate any existing holdings. A business with contracting revenue is mathematically a deteriorating asset.

Historical & Simulation Evidence

Model Validation: Capital Preservation (No Trades)

The system did not execute any trades during this backtest period. This is a valid risk-mitigation outcome: potential setups were systematically filtered out because they did not meet our strict expectation-to-risk constraints.

Data Status: Successfully analyzed 876805 minutes of price action.

Filtering Status: 2 potential setups detected but rejected by execution filters:

2 rejected by Extendedness/200 SMA filter.