MRF Ltd. (MRF)
Date Range: 2026-03-22 to 2026-06-22 | Starting Capital: ₹100,000
Symbol-Specific Risk & Execution Parameters
These execution parameters have been optimized specifically for MRF based on historical volatility, structural character, and friction constraints:
- ATR Stop Distance (
max_stop_atr):1.50x ATR - Minimum Reward-to-Risk Ratio (
min_reward_risk):1.20R - Friction Buffer Target (
friction_min_target_pct):0.03% - Positional Holds Allowed (
allow_positional_hold):True
Executive Summary
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Rating | AVOID |
| Conviction Score | 38/100 |
| Trend | Neutral / Bearish |
| Sector Rank | 14/19 |
| Suitable Horizon | Not recommended |
| Action | Wait for a higher-quality setup. Avoid fresh capital allocation. |
Model Backtest & Validation Summary
To validate the conviction score recommendations, the system ran historical simulation backtests for MRF under institutional execution assumptions:
| Metric | Out-of-Sample (OOS) Backtest Performance |
|---|---|
| Validation Date Range | 2026-03-22 to 2026-06-22 |
| Total Signals Executed | 0 trades |
| Historical Win Rate | 0.0% (0W / 0L) <span style="font-size: 0.8rem; padding: 2px 6px; border-radius: 4px; background-color: #ef444420; color: #ef4444; font-weight: bold; margin-left: 6px;" aria-label="Low reliability: fewer than 10 trades">Exploratory</span> |
| Average Trade Expectancy | ₹0.00/trade |
| Profit Factor / Sortino Ratio | 0.00 / 0.00 |
| Maximum Backtest Drawdown | 0.0% |
| Net Strategy Return | +0.00% |
| Cost & Slippage Assumptions | 0.16% round-trip trading friction (0.05% slippage, 0.03% commission, taxes) |
| Execution Sizing Rules | ₹1,000 risk target per trade, ATR-based stop sizing (max 1.5% cap) |
| Validation Methodology | Out-of-Sample (OOS) Walk-Forward Validated Parameters |
What Changed Since Previous Report?
- Initial Run / Baseline: No previous report was found for this symbol to perform comparative validation. This report establishes the baseline parameters.
Actionable Trading Guidance
Direct Stock Setup Outlook
No active intraday setup detected for the next session.
⌥ Options Strategy Recommendation
Recommended Vehicle: Cash Equity
Reason: Highest risk-adjusted return (EV/Risk Ratio of -0.092) with consistent historical expectancy and zero options friction.
- Volatility Dashboard: Realized Vol (RV): 18.8% | Implied Vol (IV): 20.0% | IV Rank: 28.1% | IV Percentile: 37.4%
- Directional Probabilities: P(up): 10% | P(down): 10% | P(flat): 80%
- Expected Return Distribution: Median: +0.09% (10th: -9.17%, 90th: +6.65%) | Expected Move: 0.00 ATR
Expected Value (EV) Payoff Matrix:
| Strategy | Expected Value (EV) | Capital (Margin) | Expected Return on Margin | Risk | EV / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Condor | ₹1043.31 | ₹39,456.18 | 2.6% | ₹267.12 | 3.906 |
| Bull Put Spread | ₹2501.06 | ₹59,184.27 | 4.2% | ₹3983.46 | 0.628 |
| Futures | ₹-1075.72 | ₹295,921.34 | -0.4% | ₹48241.24 | -0.022 |
| Cash Equity | ₹-4774.74 | ₹1,972,808.91 | -0.2% | ₹51898.97 | -0.092 |
| Synthetic Future | ₹-35554.95 | ₹295,921.34 | -12.0% | ₹78952.36 | -0.450 |
| Covered Call | ₹-35568.52 | ₹1,972,808.91 | -1.8% | ₹78952.36 | -0.451 |
| Calendar Spread | ₹-35608.52 | ₹59,184.27 | -60.2% | ₹78992.36 | -0.451 |
| Ratio Spread | ₹-35608.52 | ₹197,280.89 | -18.0% | ₹78992.36 | -0.451 |
Systematic Execution Plan (Generic Framework)
- Stop Loss: 1.5 × ATR from entry
- Profit Targets: Target 1 (1R) for 50% scale-out, trail remainder.
Expected Outcomes & Suitability
Expected 1 Month Outcome
- Bullish: 10.0%
- Neutral: 80.0%
- Bearish: 10.0%
Expected Return Range
- Median: +0.09%
- 25th percentile: -4.47%
- 75th percentile: +3.33%
Portfolio Suitability
Suitable For:
- None
Not Suitable For:
- ✗ Swing Traders
- ✗ Positional Traders
- ✗ Long-Term Growth Investors
- ✗ Income Investors
- ✗ Low Volatility Portfolios
- ✗ Growth Investors
Sector & Regime Context
- Sector: Automobile and Auto Components
- Sector Strength: 3.5/10
- Relative Strength: -6.37% vs NIFTY
- Sector Rank: 14 of 19 sectors
- Structural Regime: RANGE
- Tactical Setup Focus:
Range Mean Reversion,Failed Breakout Reversal,Directional Change Overshoot,Bollinger Band Reversal,Volume Capitulation Reversal,PDH/PDL Breakout,Opening Gap Fade
Conviction Score Breakdown:
- 1. Technical Setups: +0.0 / 35 (No active technical setup and no strong daily momentum structure)
- 2. Fundamentals: +20.0 / 25 (Steady business growth structure (Grade B))
- 3. Sector Context: +7.0 / 20 (Sector Strength: 3.5/10 (Automobile and Auto Components))
- 4. Regime & Momentum: +10.6 / 20 (Daily candle close location: +0.6 pts (12% of range), Market in low-volatility/range regime
RANGE: +5.0 pts, VIX is 13.5 (Low volatility/risk): +5.0 pts)
Conviction Rating System Matrix:
| Score Range | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 90 - 100 | Strong Buy |
| 75 - 89 | Buy |
| 60 - 74 | Watchlist |
| 40 - 59 | Neutral |
| Below 40 | Avoid |
Fundamental Analysis & Annual Guidance
- Valuation: Trailing P/E: 23.1 | Forward P/E: 14.6 | PEG Ratio: N/A | Price/Book: 2.66
- Business Growth: Revenue YoY: 0.13% | Quarterly EPS: 0.37% | ROE: N/A
- Risk & Dividend: Beta: 0.16 | Dividend Yield: 0.18% | Book Value: 49454.86
- Investment Grade: Grade B (Accumulate)
- Recommendation: Business is growing steadily. Consider accumulating on technical pullbacks. High-stability defensive profile (Beta: 0.16).
- Annual Entry Guidance: Do not chase breakouts. Accumulate gradually exclusively during market corrections or pullbacks to the 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
- Annual Exit Guidance: Liquidate if earnings growth turns negative, or if the broader market regime turns structurally bearish (NIFTY loses 200 SMA).
Historical & Simulation Evidence
Model Validation: Capital Preservation (No Trades)
The system did not execute any trades during this backtest period. This is a valid risk-mitigation outcome: potential setups were systematically filtered out because they did not meet our strict expectation-to-risk constraints.
Data Status: Successfully analyzed 935060 minutes of price action.
Setup Status: Absolutely zero setups triggered mathematically.